Property firms build their own AI while home sales sit near a 30-year low

How the business works

Five property businesses earn money in five different ways

Outsiders lump these businesses together as "real estate", but each one gets paid by a different customer in a different way. Brokers earn a share of a sale price, property managers a share of rent, remodelers a project price, and security firms an hourly rate for each guard.

The leaders on our list run firms in all five. Each row below is one business; the same question about margin, growth, or headcount means something different in each.

Revenue models differ, so the firms report size differently: agents and sales volume in brokerage, apartments in management, jobs and revenue in remodeling, and guards in security.

Most brokerage agents aren't employees

A brokerage's agents are mostly independent contractors who choose their firm and can leave with their clients. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) counted 1,438,569 members in mid-2026. NAR The typical agent closed nine deals in 2025 and earned $59,200 before expenses. HousingWire So a brokerage headcount like "13,000 agents" says how many people work under the brand, not how many are on the payroll. Remodelers and security firms are the opposite: West Shore Home's installers are on its payroll. Fortune

Big consolidators set the pace for family firms

Compass closed its purchase of Anywhere Real Estate, owner of Coldwell Banker and Century 21, on January 9, 2026. Real Estate News Allied Universal bought eight security companies with about $205 million in yearly revenue between spring and September 2026. Security Today Greystar manages more than 1 million US apartments. Greystar Each of our leaders runs a firm that has chosen to stay independent of these giants.

The economics in 2026

Mortgage rates above 7% keep home sales stuck near 4 million a year

Home sales moved opposite to mortgage rates through and after the pandemic, and Realtor membership fell far less than sales did.

Three more pressures sit under the numbers:

• Apartment owners give away rent to fill buildings. In August 2026, 15.4% of stabilized apartments offered concessions, averaging about 11% of rent, while occupancy held at 95.5%. RealPage Insurance per apartment rose from $502 in 2021 to $777 in 2024. NAA
• Commercial deals are back, but mostly for data centers. Data centers drove the rise in commercial deal volume in the second quarter of 2026, The Real Deal while 12.16% of office loans in commercial mortgage bonds were delinquent in September. Trepp via Yieldpro
• Tariffs and turnover raise costs for remodelers and guard firms. The 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets and vanities is set to double to 50% on January 1, 2027. NAHB Security guard turnover reached 89% in 2024, against 66% across the private sector. UC Berkeley Labor Center

What is changing

Property firms are changing how the work gets done in five ways

The firms changing most are deciding what to own instead of rent: their software, their listings, and their operations. In multifamily, 89% of operators say they use AI, but only 14% have fully automated leasing from first inquiry to signed lease, according to a survey by EliseAI, a company that sells AI leasing agents. EliseAI

From 2023 to 2026, the changes fall into five themes. The first three match the three groups of leaders on our list, and each cuts across brokerage, management, remodeling, and security.

The innovators

Six leaders on our list are rebuilding how their property firms work

Six leaders in these businesses are among The Originals. Each has made a dated, costly change to how the work is done. The highest scorers are B.J. Werzyn of West Shore Home (7.5), Hoby Hanna of Howard Hanna (7.1), and Ryan Serhant of SERHANT. (6.0).

Building their own AI

Ryan SerhantOn the list · 6.0 of 10

Founder and CEO, SERHANT. · New York; brokerage he founded in 2020, with more than 2,000 agents and 200 full-time staff, the firm says

Ryan raised $45 million in December 2024, led by Camber Creek, to build S.MPLE, his firm's own AI platform. Commercial Observer In September 2026 he released S.MPLE 2.0, which handles listing preparation, marketing, and transaction paperwork through an AI "chief of staff" called Dot, and kept it inside the brokerage rather than selling it. HousingWire The firm opened in Chicago in October 2026. Chicago Sun-Times

“Chatbots give you answers, but S.MPLE 2.0 gives you outcomes.” source

Ask aboutWhich part of an agent's week S.MPLE has taken over, and what his agents do with the time.

Kyle MatthewsOn the list · 5.9 of 10

Founder and CEO, Matthews · Nashville; commercial brokerage he founded in 2015, with more than 1,000 agents and employees in 30+ offices

Kyle moved Matthews' headquarters from El Segundo, California, to Nashville in 2022 and named Phoenix its operations and technology hub. Matthews Matthews says its engineering division grew 220% from 2022 to mid-2026 to build Artemis, its own AI client database, and in January 2026 he said the firm was tuning its own AI models. Matthews Matthews

“We're taking a multi-pronged approach, and we are laying the foundation internally to hyper-tune models for strategic areas that we hope to dominate in.” source

Ask aboutWhich broker tasks Artemis has taken over, and why he chose to hire engineers in-house instead of buying software.

B.J. WerzynOn the list · 7.5 of 10

Founder and CEO, West Shore Home · Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania; bath, shower, and window remodeler he founded in 2006, with more than 3,200 employees, including its installers; Leonard Green has owned 20% since 2020

B.J. bought a St. Paul software firm in 2022 and turned it into the team that built Hawkeye, an iPhone app that scans a room in 3D in under a minute, launched in October 2023. West Shore Home West Shore Home He hired a chief data and AI officer in 2024 and a chief technology officer in August 2026. CIO Dive Fortune reports he plans to double revenue to about $2 billion with about 6,000 employees instead of 7,000. Fortune

“Nobody's going to replace the last mile of a home remodeling project,” source

Ask aboutWhich jobs at West Shore Home AI changes, and which ones he'd never hand to it.

Taking back the listing and the customer

Hoby HannaOn the list · 7.1 of 10

CEO, Howard Hanna Real Estate Services · Pittsburgh; the largest family-owned US brokerage, third generation, with more than 500 offices and about 15,000 agents and staff

Hoby became CEO in 2023 and within weeks pulled Howard Hanna's Cleveland-area listings out of the shared feed that lets rival brokers' websites show them, so buyers see them on Howard Hanna's own site. Real Estate News In May 2025 he told NAR and the MLSs that Hanna Holdings doesn't consider NAR's Clear Cooperation Policy binding. RISMedia In 2026 the firm launched HannaList, its own pre-market listing network. Real Estate News

“We know so many of you go out and get a hard-earned listing and that gets marketed and scraped by so many different people as opposed to yourself.” source

Ask aboutWhat happened to in-house deals in Cleveland after the switch, and why he's chosen a middle path on pre-marketing rather than following Compass.

Running the work from one central hub

Jessica BeckOn the list · 3.8 of 10

Co-founder and CEO, Alfred / Arqline · New York; Alfred, the company she co-founded in 2014, now runs about 50,000 apartments in 31 markets under the Arqline name

Jessica turned a property technology company into a property manager. Alfred bought RKW Residential, with about 30,000 apartments, in 2022, Multifamily Dive merged with Lennar's Quarterra Living in June 2025, Multifamily Dive and in March 2026 launched Arqline to run both under one centralized, AI-supported operating model. Multifamily Executive

“We are engineering a platform where technology and artificial intelligence (AI) work alongside our people, not in place of them, to eliminate the noise, amplify insight, and elevate performance across every asset.” source

Ask aboutWhich jobs moved from the buildings to the central team when the three companies combined, and what residents noticed.

Dave ForystekOn the list · 3.8 of 10

Founder, Premier Security Solutions · Burton, Michigan; guard and monitoring company he founded in 2013 as a retired Flint police officer, with more than 1,200 guards in 2023; the company says it has since been acquired by Alpha Video Surveillance

Dave bought former credit union offices in Burton in 2023 to build a command center that watches client sites live, backed by a fleet of solar-powered camera trailers. ABC12 The company later flew autonomous drones from docks at client sites, monitored from that center. FlytBase Premier's leadership page now says it was "recently acquired" by Alpha Video Surveillance and runs under a shared leadership structure. Premier Security Solutions

“It's more than just reactionary and going back and looking at what happened. We're watching it in real time and stopping it from happening in many cases.” source

Ask aboutWhat role he plays now that Premier is part of Alpha Video Surveillance, and how the command center changed what a guard does on site.

Three leaders outside the list are making similar moves

These leaders aren't on the list. Each runs a family-controlled firm and has made a change worth asking about.

The wider field

Public giants and AI vendors set the terms the family firms react to

A few large firms and vendors shape what the leaders above can do. They set the price of a listing, an acquisition, and the software everyone else rents.

Large firms and buyers

• Compass The largest US brokerage after buying Anywhere; reported 83,184 agents at its own brokerages in mid-2026.
• Greystar The largest US property manager, past 1 million apartments; paid $24 million to settle the FTC's fee case.
• Allied Universal The largest security company, owned by private equity; bought eight firms in 2026.
• GardaWorld Bought Stealth Monitoring to lead remote, AI-assisted video guarding.

Companies selling the tools

• EliseAI AI agents for apartment leasing, renewals, and collections; publishes the operator survey cited above.
• RealPage Rent-setting and property software at the center of the Justice Department's pricing case.
• FlytBase Software for autonomous security drones, used by Premier Security Solutions.

How customers find the firms

Portals, referral networks, and lead sellers take a share of each customer

Each business pays a different middleman. Agents pay Zillow and referral networks a share of their commission when a lead closes. Brokers pay relocation companies for corporate moves. Apartment managers pay listing sites every month, and remodelers buy leads from Angi and Thumbtack whether or not they win the job. A customer referred by a past client costs nothing.

A few owners control the channels

• Zillow Group The largest home search portal; also runs StreetEasy and rental listings.
• CoStar Group Owns Homes.com, Apartments.com, and LoopNet, the main commercial listing site.
• News Corp Owns Realtor.com through Move, Inc.
• Compass Owns the Cartus relocation business since buying Anywhere in January 2026.
• Rocket Companies Owns Redfin, which must restart selling apartment ads under the August 2026 FTC settlement.

What it means for the firms

• A portal customer now costs a share of the commission. Zillow's pay-at-closing fee is most often reported at 35% of the agent's side, up to 40% in some markets. The Close Relocation companies' referral fees mostly run 20-35%, a consumer group found. Consumer Federation of America
• Repeat and referred customers are the cheapest. In NAR's 2025 survey, 43% of buyers found their agent through a referral, and 18% used an agent they'd worked with before. Virginia REALTORS Brokerages that keep past clients pay no middleman.
• Remodelers pay for leads they don't win. The FTC ordered HomeAdvisor to pay up to $7.2 million in 2023 over the quality of the leads it sold. TechCrunch The median remodeler on the Top 500 list spent $372 per lead that turned into a sales appointment. Qualified Remodeler

Rules for the middlemen are changing

Four leaders run the main channels

Jeremy Wacksman runs Zillow and Andy Florance runs CoStar, owner of Homes.com and Apartments.com. Damian Eales runs Realtor.com, and Mike Steib took over Angi, the largest seller of home-improvement leads, in September 2026.

Jeremy Wacksman

CEO, Zillow Group · Seattle; the largest home search portal, public

Jeremy is moving Zillow from selling ads to agents toward a pay-at-closing referral program, Zillow Preferred. Zillow plans to use Preferred for more than 75% of its buyer connections by the end of 2026, up from 44% at the end of 2025. Zillow In 2026 he also launched Zillow Preview, a pre-market listing program that pays listing agents a share of revenue. RISMedia

“AI can be used for great things, but it could also be used to misrepresent what a house looks like or what a listing photo looks like.” source

Ask aboutOnce most buyer leads run through Preferred, what share of a partner agent's commission goes to Zillow.

Andy Florance

Founder and CEO, CoStar Group (Homes.com, Apartments.com, LoopNet) · Owns the main commercial, apartment, and Homes.com listing sites; public

Andy built Homes.com on the promise that a listing's buyer goes to the listing agent; subscribers rose to 34,000 by April 2026. Real Estate News Under investor pressure, CoStar is cutting Homes.com spending by about 35% in 2026. HousingWire

“So we actually have a glut of rentals and a shortage of homes.” source

Ask aboutWhether Homes.com will keep its promise not to sell a listing's buyers to other agents as spending falls.

Damian Eales

CEO, Move, Inc. (Realtor.com) · Realtor.com's operator, owned by News Corp; CEO since 2023

Damian grew Realtor.com's revenue to $610 million in the year to June 2026 and agreed in May 2026 to show Zillow's Preview listings, sharing revenue with listing agents. HousingWire RISMedia

“We've long said that an open marketplace – one built around transparency and broad access – is what's best for consumers and the industry, and last quarter we backed that up with action,” source

Ask aboutWhether Realtor.com is now Zillow's partner or its competitor, and what that means for brokerages that pay both.

Mike Steib

CEO, Angi Inc. (Angi, HomeAdvisor) · Denver; the largest home services lead marketplace, public since IAC spun it off in 2025; CEO since September 22, 2026

Mike took over from Jeff Kip on September 22, 2026, after a quarter in which Angi's revenue fell 11% and its leads fell 13%. Executive Moves MarketBeat

Ask aboutWhether Angi will share each homeowner request with fewer contractors, or charge more for each lead.

Trade-offs

Six trade-offs divide the leaders you'll meet

Most leaders on our list have picked a side on several of these. In our reading, asking which side they picked, and why, gets to their strategy faster than asking about trends.

Before a first conversation

Leaders want to talk about rates, listing rules, consolidation, and AI

In late 2026, brokerage leaders talk about slow sales, the fight over private listings, and what the Compass and Anywhere merger means for recruiting agents. Apartment managers talk about concessions, insurance, and the RealPage cases. Remodelers talk about tariffs and the cost of leads, and security firms about turnover and remote monitoring.

Seven mistakes mark an outsider

• Saying the NAR settlement crushed commissions. Buyer's agents averaged 2.42% in late 2025, slightly more than a year earlier. The change is in the paperwork and in who negotiates the fee. HousingWire
• Calling agents employees. Most are independent contractors who choose their brokerage.
• Saying Clear Cooperation is dead. It's still NAR policy, and NAR restated it in July 2026. Real Estate News
• Reading every apartment concession as distress. Occupancy was 95.5% in August 2026, and the share of units offering concessions has fallen. RealPage
• Assuming people who can't move remodel instead. High rates also block the home equity loans that pay for projects. CNBC
• Saying cameras will replace guards. Most firms mix the two, so the useful question is what each one does.
• Using RealPage as shorthand for wrongdoing. The manager you're meeting may be a defendant or a class member.

Eleven questions get these leaders talking about the work

1. Rates went back above 7% in October. What did you change the last time rates jumped, and what would you do differently now?
2. (Brokerage) Buyer agreements became mandatory two years ago. How has an agent's first conversation with a buyer changed?
3. (Brokerage) Where have you landed on office exclusives and pre-marketing, and how do your sellers choose?
4. (Brokerage) Since Compass bought Anywhere, has recruiting agents gotten easier or harder for you?
5. Which job in your company has AI changed most so far, and which did you expect to change that hasn't?
6. (Property management) If you've centralized leasing or renewals, what did the on-site team stop doing, and what did residents notice?
7. (Property management) Insurance is your fastest-rising cost. What have you changed in how you operate, beyond the costs you pass on?
8. (Remodeling) Growth in remodeling spending is projected near zero by mid-2027. Are you seeing it in leads or in close rates?
9. (Remodeling) Cabinet and vanity tariffs may double on January 1. How do you handle the gap between the price you quote and the install date?
10. (Security) On accounts that moved to cameras and remote monitoring, what happened to the guard's job?
11. What's one thing you rebuilt in the last two years that you'd do again, and one you'd undo?

Where they gather

Six events bring these leaders together before July 2027

NAR NXT draws residential brokers, the NMHC Annual Meeting and Apartmentalize draw apartment owners and managers, and ICSC draws commercial brokers. KBIS draws remodelers and their suppliers.

Glossary

Twenty-four terms come up in the first ten minutes

Bill rate

The hourly price a security firm charges a client for a guard; the guard's pay is the pay rate, and the gap covers overhead and margin.

Buyer agreement

A written contract, required since August 2024, that sets what a buyer's agent does and how they're paid before the buyer tours homes.

Cap

The yearly amount an agent pays the brokerage, after which the agent keeps all of each commission.

Cap rate

A property's net operating income divided by its price; a lower cap rate means a higher price for each dollar of income.

Centralization

Moving leasing, renewals, and paperwork out of each building into a shared or remote team.

Clear Cooperation Policy

NAR's rule that a listing must go into the MLS within one business day of any public marketing.

Concessions

Discounts such as free weeks of rent used to win leases.

Dual agency

One agent or brokerage representing both buyer and seller in the same deal; some states limit or ban it.

IDX

Internet Data Exchange: the feed and rules that let a brokerage show other brokers' MLS listings on its own website.

In-home sale

A remodeling sales model where a rep measures, presents, and aims to close in one visit to the home.

Lease-up

The period after a new building opens when it fills from empty to stable occupancy.

MLS

Multiple listing service: a local database where member brokers share listings.

NOI

Net operating income: rent and other income minus operating costs, before debt payments.

OM

Offering memorandum: the marketing book a commercial broker prepares to sell an investment property.

Office exclusive

A listing shared only inside one brokerage and kept off the MLS, with the seller's signed consent.

Post orders

The written instructions that tell a guard what to do at a given post.

Pre-marketing

Promoting a listing to a firm's own agents, or on a portal's preview program, before it goes to the MLS.

Referral fee

The share of a commission one agent or company pays another for sending a client.

Relocation management company

A firm, such as Cartus, that runs an employer's moving benefit and assigns transferees to network brokers for a fee.

Remote video monitoring

Off-site operators watching live cameras, often with AI alerts, who warn off intruders or call for help.

Revenue management

Software that recommends daily rents for each apartment.

Split

How a commission divides between the agent and the brokerage, for example 70/30.

Team

A group of agents under a lead agent inside a brokerage, sharing leads and staff.

VOW

Virtual office website: a brokerage site where registered clients can see more MLS data than the public sees.

Read more

Three pieces explain AI, listings, and remodeling in 2026

• West Shore Home's AI bet (Fortune) How a bathroom remodeler is using AI to grow without hiring as many people, and where its CEO draws the line.
• A timeline of Zillow's listing war with MRED and Compass (HousingWire) The 2026 fight over who controls a home listing, in order.
• Remodeling expected to slow (The MortgagePoint) Harvard's forecast of homeowner remodeling spending through mid-2027.